PROFESSOR Kishore Mahbubani has written a new book, Can Singapore Survive? ("S'pore's challenge: 'Be confident while being paranoid' "; Tuesday), where he discusses whether Singapore can stay exceptional.
Our population woes - low fertility, a fast-ageing population, perpetual labour shortages, influx of foreigners, and so on - pose a serious challenge to our long-term survival.
The issues are so paramount that the Government had to release a White Paper to explain them, and formulate a wide range of social and economic measures to tackle them.
The White Paper spelt out the need for us to grow our population through immigration, urged us to accept new immigrants, and encouraged both existing and new residents to do their part in social integration.
Worsening income inequality and divides created by generational gaps and lifestyle differences could further complicate the issues.
Our population woes pose a greater threat to our long-term survival than in other countries.
First, the speed of our demographic transition is too fast.
Our fertility rate dropped from 6.56 in 1957 to about 2 in just two decades, compared with the more than 100 years it took for that to happen in the United States.
This rapid transition causes our old-age support ratio to slide at a much faster pace than other countries.
Second, as we produce only slightly over half the number of babies needed to replace our population, we need to maintain a "one immigrant to every new birth" form of immigration ratio.
Third, our demographic woes would worsen in the future - old-age support ratio, manpower shortages, and perhaps also our fertility rate.
Existing generations must try their best to achieve the targets and objectives set out in the White Paper, such as meeting the productivity growth target, reducing foreign worker dependence, achieving a higher fertility rate, and building an inclusive society for all.
Failing to do so would add extra burdens to future Singaporeans and disadvantage their global competitiveness.
We may leave our descendants with a strong foundation, plenty of financial resources and world-class infrastructure, but unless we also leave behind a dynamic and harmonious population, and they continue to handle the demographic problems well, it would be impossible for them to build a better Singapore.
Ng Ya Ken
Our population woes - low fertility, a fast-ageing population, perpetual labour shortages, influx of foreigners, and so on - pose a serious challenge to our long-term survival.
The issues are so paramount that the Government had to release a White Paper to explain them, and formulate a wide range of social and economic measures to tackle them.
The White Paper spelt out the need for us to grow our population through immigration, urged us to accept new immigrants, and encouraged both existing and new residents to do their part in social integration.
Worsening income inequality and divides created by generational gaps and lifestyle differences could further complicate the issues.
Our population woes pose a greater threat to our long-term survival than in other countries.
First, the speed of our demographic transition is too fast.
Our fertility rate dropped from 6.56 in 1957 to about 2 in just two decades, compared with the more than 100 years it took for that to happen in the United States.
This rapid transition causes our old-age support ratio to slide at a much faster pace than other countries.
Second, as we produce only slightly over half the number of babies needed to replace our population, we need to maintain a "one immigrant to every new birth" form of immigration ratio.
Third, our demographic woes would worsen in the future - old-age support ratio, manpower shortages, and perhaps also our fertility rate.
Existing generations must try their best to achieve the targets and objectives set out in the White Paper, such as meeting the productivity growth target, reducing foreign worker dependence, achieving a higher fertility rate, and building an inclusive society for all.
Failing to do so would add extra burdens to future Singaporeans and disadvantage their global competitiveness.
We may leave our descendants with a strong foundation, plenty of financial resources and world-class infrastructure, but unless we also leave behind a dynamic and harmonious population, and they continue to handle the demographic problems well, it would be impossible for them to build a better Singapore.
Ng Ya Ken
